The latest summer weather outlook from the Bureau warns of increased rainfall across Queensland falling on saturated ground flowing into dams and weirs that are already at high levels.

Senior Hydrologist Jess Carey told a Bureau severe weather season outlook webinar that September soil moisture levels were significantly above those recorded at the same time in 2020 and 2021 and Queensland was primed for “significant widespread flooding” over summer.

“Whilst there are some areas that had wet soil moisture at those times of the year (in 2020 and 2021), it was not as widespread or as significant as what we are seeing this year,” Mr Carey said.

“The takeaway from this is we’ve had some quite wet conditions and it’s left catchments significantly wetter than what we’ve seen in the last couple of years and therefore really primed for widespread flooding.

“Most of the (weir and dam) storages in Queensland are quite wet and, particularly in southern Queensland, already very full as well.”

Senior Meteorologist Harry Clark said Queensland’s weather was being influenced by a third consecutive La Nina event and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and both climate drivers favoured above-average rainfall across the state over spring and summer.

“We’ve really got both oceans around Australia (Pacific and Indian) combining to lead to an increased chance of rainfall in the coming months,” Mr Clark told the webinar.

“We know this increased chance of above-average rainfall on saturated soils and full dams does lead to a high-risk profile for further flooding – that can be both flash flooding from short intense bursts of rainfall and longer-period riverine flooding, which we have already seen a lot of over the last 12 months.”

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The risk of above-average rainfall was expected to last until at least February with an increased risk of cyclones also affecting Queensland during La Nina phases.

“The eastern region has a 74% chance of more tropical cyclones than average – the average being around four for this region with one or two of those making landfall,” Mr Clark said.

“We also see with this La Nina outlook the first tropical cyclone occurs earlier than usual compared to non-La Nina years.”

 Mr Clark urged Queenslanders to prepare now for the threat of extreme weather, particularly flooding.

“Flooding – both flash flooding and riverine flooding – is the key for this upcoming summer and that is something people are really going to need to pay attention to and get ready for over the coming month,” Mr Clark said.

RACQ urged Queenslanders to heed the Bureau advice and take necessary steps to ensure they were prepared for a potential summer of extreme weather.

Check list to prepare for storm season

• Check home building and contents insurance is up to date.
• Clear gutters and downpipes, trim overgrown branches.
• Carry out home maintenance, including checking your roof for damaged or loose tiles and sheeting which may need repairing.
• Check your council’s flood maps to see if your property is at greater risk.
• Have an emergency kit and emergency plan.
• Remove or secure loose items from the yard that could become projectiles.
• Download the Bureau of Meteorology app and sign up for weather alerts.
• Register for weather alerts if offered by your local council.

What you need to know before an extreme weather event